A Look at "Post PC" Device Sales

By 2016, tablet sales are projected to exceed sales of PCs, according to NPD. 

Overall mobile PC shipments will grow from 347 million units in 2012 to 809 million units by 2017.

Notebook PC shipments are expected to increase from 208 million units in 2012 to 393 million units by 2017, while tablet PC shipments are expected to grow from 121 million units to 416 million units in this period, for a compound annual growth rate of 28 percent. 

A key driver for tablet PC growth is adoption in mature markets (including North America, Japan and Western Europe), which will account for 66 percent of shipments in 2012 and remain in the 60 percent range throughout the forecast period. 

Tablet PC shipments into mature markets will grow from 80 million units in 2012 to 254 million units by 2017.

                                          Worldwide Mobile PC Shipment Forecast (000s)

Source: NPD 

“Consumer preference for mobile computing devices is shifting from notebook to tablet PCs, particularly in mature markets,” said Richard Shim, NPD senior analyst . “While the lines between tablet and notebook PCs are blurring, we expect mature markets to be the primary regions for tablet PC adoption.

                                        Emerging and Mature Market Tablet Shipments (000s)

Source: NPD

Gartner projects worldwide media tablet sales to end users are forecast to total 118.9 million units in 2012, a 98 percent increase from 2011 sales of 60 million units, for example.