Wednesday, September 11, 2013

How Big Will U.S. Mobile Revenue Be in 2017?

By 2017, U.S. mobile service revenue will top $212 billion, according to analysts at the Yankee Group. By some estimates, the business already is larger than that. Verizon has indicated the market had surpassed $241 billion in 2010.

If total U.S. communications service provider revenue is about $338 billion by 2017, that implies mobile will be about 63 percent of total industry revenue.

Much depends on whether video entertainment video entertainment revenues are included in the mix, though.

Insight Research predicts that global telecommunications services revenue will grow from $2.1 trillion in 2012 to $2.7 trillion in 2017 at a combined average growth rate of 5.3 percent. For most people, that will seem reasonable, given the growth of wireless services globally.

Wireless subscriber growth, particularly in Asia and other emerging markets, will raise wireless revenues by 64 percent from current levels, while wireline revenues show only modest growth. And what growth occurs in the fixed network realm will happen in broadband services.

Wireless 3G and 4G broadband services are projected to grow at a compounded rate of 24 percent over the forecast period and wireline broadband services projected to grow at a 13 percent compounded rate over the same forecast horizon, the Insight Research predicts.  

Globally, revenue will be more skewed than in the United States, though. But some have made optimistic revenue projections about revenue growth globally and in the United States.

The most-surprising prediction, by far, is the forecast that, between 2011 and 2016, North American carrier revenue will  rise from $287 billion to $662 billion, representing 11 percent compound annual revenue growth.

In 2014, telecommunications companies will make more money from mobile broadband than from fixed broadband for the first time, according to forecasters at Ovum.

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