Qwest to Reinstate Dividend

Qwest Communications will issue its first dividend since 2001, setting a recurring quarterly payout to shareholders of eight cents per share. In some ways, the move represents the final end to the "dot bomb" and telecom crash of the early 2000s.

Zayo Buys Citynet Fiber Network

Zayo Group is acquiring Tulsa, Okla.-based Citynet Fiber Network, the wholesale division of communications provider, Citynet. CFN will become part of Zayo Bandwidth, Zayo Group's fiber based bandwidth business unit.

The CFN network has 8,500 route miles of fiber covering 57 Tier I-III markets in 10 states. The company's on-net buildings encompass many major carrier locations like local exchange carrier central offices, carrier hotels and wireless mobile switching centers.

The transaction is acquisition number six for Zayo, and part of the continuing consolidation trend in the U.S. metro access space.

Conflicting Regulatory Silos Keep Popping Up

One of the problems everybody faces as we move increasingly to a world of IP-enabled communications, information and entertainment is that a growing clash is occurring, piecemeal, between historically-distinct regulatory silos. Whether we can stumble forward forever, without acknowledging the end of regulatory silos, as well as technology or industry silos, remains open to question.

The problem is simply that different sorts of activities and businesses are governed by distinctly-different frameworks. Magazines and newspapers, for example, operate under First Amendment "free speech" rules and have virtually no "common carrier" obligations.

TV and radio broadcasters operate under different rules, with more limited "free speech" rights (broadcasters do not enjoy unrestricted rights to transmit any sort of content). Cable TV regulation is more akin to broadcasting than telecom regulation, but there are some tax and local franchising rules that are more akin to common carrier businesses.

Telecom companies operate under the most-restrictive rules, with legal requirements to interconnect with other telecom service providers and deliver their traffic. Data services and content generally have been immune from these rules, though. That's why the Web, and Web content, have developed essentially as a zone of freedom.

Of course, in the U.S. market there is more talk about "network neutrality", a troublesome issue not because of the immediate implications some attribute to it, but because it is just one more examples of how the old "silos" of regulation are breaking down, and becoming intellecutually incoherent in a world where media, TV, radio, music, talk, testing, Web surfing and data communications all occur over one physical pipe.

Should that not require some harmonization or revamping of the fundamental regulatory regimes each of the media types up to this point has enjoyed? And here's the crux of the matter: how does one square first amendment, "zone of freedom" rules historically applied to newspapers, magazines, data services and the Web, with common carrier rules applied to telcos, or the quasi-regulated broadcasting industry?

The fact that delivery modes change does not alter the zone of freedom newspapers, magazines and other media, even "Web media" are supposed to have. And the U.S. courts have ruled that corporations do possess rights of free speech as well. So the issue is whether the zone of freedom is expanded or contracted as multiple media types are delivered over IP pipes.

So it is that some consumer and public advocacy groups are urging the Federal Communications Commission to declare that "short code" text messages deserve the same nondiscriminatory treatment by telephone carriers as email and voice messages.

So are "short codes" advertising, a direct response mechanism, or are they "speech." And whose "speech" rights are supposed to be protected? Those of the speaker, as the early founders seemed to think, or the rights of the "listener," as jurists increasingly have argued over the past 50 years or so?

The issue is more complicated than sometimes positioned. Text messaging services might include a "zone of freedom" in terms of what is said. But note that the freedom is for the speaker. But who is the "speaker" whenever we are looking at media?

The Washington Post might not accept advertising from its competitor, the Wall Street Journal. Verizon Wireless might not accept ads from Sprint or T-Mobile. Cable companies don't take ads from telephone companies marketing competing services. In those cases, rights of speech are exercised by a "speaker." A TV, cable or radio network has the right not to allow speech (advertising also is speech) to be paid for and transmitted.

The fundamental problem is that as IP pipes carry virtually all communications, information and entertainment, we are going to see more disjointed efforts to regulate "unlike" things in "like" ways. That will be the corollary to regulating "like" things in "unlike" ways.

at&t Renegotiates Yahoo Deal

at&t says it is close to renegotiating a contract with Yahoo Inc. that undoubtedly will result in Yahoo earning less money. Under the current deal, Yahoo earns as much as $250 million a year of revenue. The renegotiation is expected to affect other deals Yahoo has with other telecom service providers.

The renegotiation is a reminder: large telcos often partner with other entities when entering a new market, and sometimes move slowly in those markets. That doesn't mean the relationships are stable. Ultimately, as they acquire the skills they believe they need, and scale, some partners aren't so important and "value" moves back inside the service provider organization.

There sometimes is a perception by outsiders that telcos are too "dumb" or "too slow moving" to dominate new markets. On the contrary, telcos are big enough, and smart enough, to wait for markets to develop before making a move to dominate. It's a business strategy, not an indication of "not getting it."

Mobility and Video Will Drive Growth

If Bear Stearns analysts are correct, mobile penetration will zoom past 100 percent, as will digital TV penetration, quite soon. Which suggests those two types of devices are where ad revenue opportunities are brightest, not to mention other sorts of "for fee" services and applications.

at&t to Drop DirecTV

at&t will stop offering DirecTV services to its customers toward the end of the first quarter. The not-unexpected move came as at&t found itself reselling both DirecTV and Dish Network services as a result of its acquisition of BellSouth, which had been a DirecTV partner. In its own territory, at&t has been partnering with Dish Network.

The Dish Network contract itself expires at the end of 2008, but at&t's longer business relationship with EchoStar, which offers the Dish Network service, probably is decisive.
DirecTV has to have anticipated the decision and has to be expected to roll out new channel and direct sales efforts early next year, to compensate for the loss of sales momentum from at&t.

It will have a lot of work to do. By some estimates, at&t accounted for an estimated 15.2 percent of DirecTV's gross additions but 58 percent of net subscriber growth. And though DirecTV probably will end 2007 with strong subscriber growth at the same level it saw in 2006, 2008 obviously will be more challenging.

Singapore will Structurally Separate NGN

Singapore is issuing a request for proposal to build a next-generation optical access network and has decided it will be built using a "structural separation" regime, where one company will build and own the access facilities and provide wholesale access to any retail provider that wants to use the network.

The RFP to construct the network will therefore provide for structural separation of the passive network operator from the retail service providers. If necessary, the government also is prepared to mandate open access provisions.

Put your finger in the air. The wind is blowing. As Bob Dylan once said: "you don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows."

Android: It's the Business Models

The most important thing about Android, the open mobile operating system and platform sponsored by Google, is arguably not the technology or the implications for handset cost: it's the development of business models.

One might think: "well, this is open source, so we will look for business models that are like the existing models for open source." But that's probably not going to be the case. Today's revenue model for open source is payment for enhancements, support and training.

To some extent, the business model is implicit rather than explicit. If I am a hardware or software applications provider, I simply use Asterisk because it is a lower-cost way of implementing something that an end user actually buys, even it the thing being bought essentially is a "legacy" requirement.

Voice mail, phone system or messaging platform are examples. In those cases, the operating system is an input to a business model, but not the model, which is the same one that existed before the open source tool was available.

Translated into a mobile market, it looks different. Open source will not do much, in and of itself, to lower the cost of a handset. So open source doesn't necessarily mean "cheap or free handset."

One can assume handset makers using Android will stabilize their versions so there is little need for third party end user support. That is a bug, not a feature, in the mobile end user world.

And since the whole idea is "easy to use," there shouldn't be much of a market created for training people how to use, develop, maintain and upgrade their operating systems. End users don't want to do that.

Assuming Android devices are used on existing networks (the 700-MHz C band network remains a bit of a wild card), the pricing models for data access are relatively affordable already, so it isn't clear whether there is immediate impact on data plan pricing either.

So consider Android a better way to help create a mobile Web business. The mobile phone business is built on recurring payment of access fees for voice, text and data access. The mobile Web just assumes access.

So the revenue model must begin where the Web itself begins. And that means advertising, to the extent that features and content have to be monetized directly. Of course, there's also content and applications given away for free in hopes that the attention will lead to support for some other business model, be that public relations, consulting, marketing, software or what have you. In that case a content provider doesn't necessarily require a revenue model.

But that's not what service providers, device manufacturers and application providers are looking at. The issue is revenue. And from where I sit, that means a media model.

The media model includes "for fee" and "for free" services and content, with greater or lesser degrees of advertising support. That means "aggregating eyeballs" and "aggregating highly-detailed information about the owners of those eyeballs" and "tracking the behavior of those people." That makes the advertising model quite valuable.

In the mobile arena, valuable as in "can I entice you to visit Starbucks right now; it is around the corner?" Valuable as in "are you hungry and a lover of good Thai food? You are half a block away."

Some will speculate about whether an entirely ad-supported model is conceivable. Well, it's conceivable, but not likely. Broadband access isn't free. But that isn't the point. If the value is high enough, a reasonable fee is not a barrier to usage.

Android is more likely to have an impact in making the mobile Web, and applications built on the mobile Web, far easier to use and vastly richer in functionality.

That's a hugely important and economically significant activity. But I don't think Android is about "free phone calls" or "free Web access" or "free phones," as many either think or hope for. Rich applications will be reward enough for users, who are quite capable of figuring out a value-for-money proposition. Android is about the promise of a mobile Web so useful we won't mind paying access fees to use it.

The one exception is that some users will appreciate "sometimes" being able to use Wi-Fi hot spots to access applications. This is a subset of users who choose not to pay a recurring fee for fully-mobile access, and want to rely on Wi-Fi for all of their connectivity.

Then there are users who occasionally will be happy to have Wi-Fi access for signal strength reasons, even if they are comfortable with a fully-mobile broadband connection.

Still, it seems likely that the early pull of Android applications is going to be location-based. "Where am I? How do I get there? Where can I find it? I didn't know that was on sale. So that's where you are."

Ad-supported phone calls, devices or access might have some role to play, sometimes. But I doubt that's the big impact.

Cable Squeezed on Both Ends

Most observers expect telco-delivered video to gradually take market share from cable operators, though modestly over the next couple of years. Most observers also think satellite-delivered services have crested, and will be lucky to hold onto their current market shares.

But one suspects there will be more change, longer term, than most observers now expect. For starters, video demand itself could shift to other IP formats, including at least some forms of Web video. So far, there isn't all that much evidence of shift. Consumers haven't embraced any of the devices and services that port video over to TV screens, though there continues to be evidence of a lessening of interest in linear television on the part of younger consumers.

Nearer term, satellite providers remain aggressive about high-definition TV services and pricing, and most consumers seem pleased with their satellite service.

And as compelling as many consumers find triple-play or quadruple-play services, not all buyers will find the pricing the most-compelling attraction. Some services, networks or suppliers are going to be picked as "best of breed" by some portion of the market, despite the fact that a bundle can be purchased from two providers in a market.

That will continue to put some incremental pressure on cable providers, who are using bundling, as telcos are, to lock in and protect the current customer base.

at&t U-Verse: 30 Million Homes Passed by 2010

at&t says it expects its U-Verse fiber-to-customer-driven video service to be available in 30 million homes by the end of 2010, compared to 5.5 million as of its last quarter. The company has said it hopes to pass 17 million homes by the end of 2008.

For users not interested in at&t's IPTV offering, the extension of the fiber-to-customer network means higher broadband access speeds will be available as well. For many of us, if not for at&t, that is the more important part of the story.

CLECs Must Race Tide

Even though consumers now account for only about 22 percent of total incumbent telco revenue, and even though dominant telcos are losing share in that market, competitors in the business segment essentially are racing an incoming tide.

That tide is lost incumbent market share. At some point, regulators will decide the market leaders have lost enough share, and give incumbents more freedom to price and package their services, which inevitably will lead to higher wholesale rates for competitors that now rely on incumbent facilities--and wholesale discounts based on their market power--to build their businesses.

So the essential strategic task is to take share now, while it can be more easily gotten, knowing that competitive conditions will sharpen once the incumbents are more free to package and price. And that tide is coming in.

U.S. telcos continue to lose residential phone subscribers to both cable VoIP and wireless subscriptions at a steady seven to eight percent a year, according to Citigroup analyst Michael Rollins. Wireless is a lesser issue, as incumbents own a majority of that business, and simply must cope with product substitution. Wireless penetration should rise from an estimated 83 percent this year to 87 percent by the end of 2008.

Indeed, by 2010, wireless-only households should rise to 27 percent, from 13 percent last year and an estimated 17 percent this year, Rollins argues.

Cable VoIP penetration should jump from 10 percent last year and an estimated 14 percent this year to 25 percent by 2010. If the Federal Communications Commission sticks with precedent, that is going to be enough lost share to trigger an end to wholesale access policies favorable to CLECs.

If Rollins is right, those deregulation rules will start to trigger in just a couple of years. Of course, one can argue that market share losses in residential are not the same thing as losses in the business markets. But that hasn't stopped the FCC from deregulating in the past.

Ironically, incumbent market share loss is the very thing that will unleash them as more formidable competitors.

If Operating Systems Were Airlines: Part 2

If Operating Systems Ran The Airlines...

UNIX Airways

Everyone brings one piece of the plane along when they come to the airport. They all go out on the runway and put the plane together piece by piece, arguing non-stop about what kind of plane they are supposed to be building.

Air DOS

Everybody pushes the airplane until it glides, then they jump on and let the plane coast until it hits the ground again. Then they push again, jump on again, and so on...

Mac Airlines

All the stewards, captains, baggage handlers, and ticket agents look and act exactly the same. Every time you ask questions about details, you are gently but firmly told that you don't need to know, don't want to know, and everything will be done for you without your ever having to know, so just shut up.

Windows Air

The terminal is pretty and colourful, with friendly stewards, easy baggage check and boarding, and a smooth take-off. After about 10 minutes in the air, the plane explodes with no warning whatsoever.

Windows NT Air

Just like Windows Air, but costs more, uses much bigger planes, and takes out all the other aircraft within a 40-mile radius when it explodes.

Windows XP Air

You turn up at the airport,which is under contract to only allow XP Air planes. All the aircraft are identical, brightly coloured and three times as big as they need to be. The signs are huge and all point the same way. Whichever way you go, someone pops up dressed in a cloak and pointed hat insisting you follow him. Your luggage and clothes are taken off you and replaced with an XP Air suit and suitcase identical to everyone around you as this is included in the exorbitant ticket cost. The aircraft will not take off until you have signed a contract. The inflight entertainment promised turns out to be the same Mickey Mouse cartoon repeated over and over again. You have to phone your travel agent before you can have a meal or drink. You are searched regularly throughout the flight. If you go to the toilet twice or more you get charged for a new ticket. No matter what destination you booked you will always end up crash landing at Whistler in Canada.
OSX Air:

You enter a white terminal, and all you can see is a woman sitting in the corner behind a white desk, you walk up to get your ticket. She smiles and says "Welcome to OS X Air, please allow us to take your picture", at which point a camera in the wall you didn't notice before takes your picture. "Thank you, here is your ticket" You are handed a minimalistic ticket with your picture at the top, it already has all of your information. A door opens to your right and you walk through. You enter a wide open space with one seat in the middle, you sit, listen to music and watch movies until the end of the flight. You never see any of the other passengers. You land, get off, and you say to yourself "wow, that was really nice, but I feel like something was missing"

Windows Vista Airlines:

You enter a good looking terminal with the largest planes you have ever seen. Every 10 feet a security officer appears and asks you if you are "sure" you want to continue walking to your plane and if you would like to cancel. Not sure what cancel would do, you continue walking and ask the agent at the desk why the planes are so big. After the security officer making sure you want to ask the question and you want to hear the answer, the agent replies that they are bigger because it makes customers feel better, but the planes are designed to fly twice as slow. Adding the size helped achieve the slow fly goal.

Once on the plane, every passenger has to be asked individually by the flight attendants if they are sure they want to take this flight. Then it is company policy that the captain asks the passengers collectively the same thing. After answering yes to so many questions, you are punched in the face by some stranger who when he asked "Are you sure you want me to punch you in the face? Cancel or Allow?" you instinctively say "Allow".

After takeoff, the pilots realize that the landing gear driver wasn't updated to work with the new plane. Therefore it is always stuck in the down position. This forces the plane to fly even slower, but the pilots are used to it and continue to fly the planes, hoping that soon the landing gear manufacturer will give out a landing gear driver update.

You arrive at your destination wishing you had used your reward miles with XP airlines rather than trying out this new carrier. A close friend, after hearing your story, mentions that Linux Air is a much better alternative and helps.

Linux Air

Disgruntled employees of all the other OS airlines decide to start their own airline. They build the planes, ticket counters, and pave the runways themselves. They charge a small fee to cover the cost of printing the ticket, but you can also download and print the ticket yourself.

When you board the plane, you are given a seat, four bolts, a wrench and a copy of the seat-HOWTO.html. Once settled, the fully adjustable seat is very comfortable, the plane leaves and arrives on time without a single problem, the in-flight meal is wonderful. You try to tell customers of the other airlines about the great trip, but all they can say is, "You had to do what with the seat?"

Enterprise Apple PC Buying Increases

Though some in the MIcrosoft operating system ecosystem will pooh pooh the news, a recent Changewave Alliance survey suggests the strongest enterprise buying of Apple computers since 2005. It may be the Leopard effect, the iPod or iPhone effect. Or maybe, as more
computing moves to Web interfaces, it is becoming more rational again to choose "easy to use" devices, as the key applications can be supported either on a Windows or Leopard operating system.

As somebody who was forced to give up Apple machines in favor of the PCs everybody else in the enterprise was using, this is a welcome change. Somebody needs to update this, but it is priceless:

What if Operating Systems Were Airlines?

DOS Airlines
Everybody pushes the airplane until it glides, then they jump on and let the plane coast until it hits the ground again, then they push again jump on again, and so on.

OS/2 Airlines
The terminal is almost empty, with only a few prospective passengers milling about. The announcer says that their flight has just departed, wishes them a good flight, though there are no planes on the runway. Airline personnel walk around, apologising profusely to customers in hushed voices, pointing from time to time to the sleek, powerful jets outside the terminal on the field. They tell each passenger how good the real flight will be on these new jets and how much safer it will be than Windows Airlines, but that they will have to wait a little longer for the technicians to finish the flight systems.

Once they finally finished you're offered a flight at reduced cost. To board the plane, you have your ticket stamped ten different times by standing in ten different lines. Then you fill our a form showing where you want to sit and whether the plane should look and feel like an ocean liner, a passenger train or a bus. If you succeed in getting on the plane and the plane succeeds in taking off the ground, you have a wonderful trip...except for the time when the rudder and flaps get frozen in position, in which case you will just have time to say your prayers and get in crash position.

Windows Air
The terminal is pretty and colorful, with friendly stewards, easy baggage check and boarding, and a smooth take-off. After about 10 minutes in the air, the plane explodes with no warning whatsoever.

Windows NT Air
Just like Windows Air, but costs more, uses much bigger planes, and takes out all the other aircraft within a 40-mile radius when it explodes.

Windows XP
See "Windows NT"

Windows Vista
See "Windows NT," but prettier, if useless

Mac Airlines
All the stewards, stewardesses, captains, baggage handlers, and ticket agents look the same, act the same, and talk the same. Every time you ask questions about details, you are told you don't need to know, don't want to know, and would you please return to your seat and watch the movie.

Unix Airlines
Each passenger brings a piece of the airplane and a box of tools to the airport. They gather on the tarmac, arguing constantly about what kind of plane they want to build and how to put it together. Eventually, they build several different aircraft, but give them all the same name. Some passengers actually reach their destinations. All passengers believe they got there.

Wings of OS/400
The airline has bought ancient DC-3s, arguably the best and safest planes that ever flew, and painted "747" on their tails to make them look as if they are fast. The flight attendants, of course, attend to your every need, though the drinks cost $15 a pop. Stupid questions cost $230 per hour, unless you have SupportLine, which requires a first class ticket and membership in the frequent flyer club. Then they cost $500, but your accounting department can call it overhead.

Mach Airlines
There is no airplane. The passengers gather and shout for an airplane, then wait and wait and wait and wait. A bunch of people come, each carrying one piece of the plane with them. These people all go out on the runway and put the plane together piece by piece, arguing constantly about what kind of plane they're building. The plane finally takes off, leaving the passengers on the ground waiting and waiting and waiting and waiting. After the plane lands, the pilot telephones the passengers at the departing airport to inform them that they have arrived.

Newton Airlines
After buying your ticket 18 months in advance, you finally get to board the plane. Upon boarding the plane you are asked your name. After 6 times, the crew member recognizes your name and then you are allowed to take your seat. As you are getting ready to take your seat, the steward announces that you have to repeat the boarding process because they are out of room and need to recount to make sure they can take more passengers.

VMS Airlines
The passengers all gather in the hanger, watching hundreds of technicians check the flight systems on this immense, luxury aircraft. This plane has at least 10 engines and seats over 1,000 passengers. All the passengers scramble aboard, as do the necessary complement of 200 technicians. The pilot takes his place up in the glass cockpit. He guns the engines, only to realise that the plane is too big to get through the hangar doors.

BeOS Air
You have to pay for the tickets, but they're half the price of Windows Air, and if you are an aircraft mechanic you can probably ride for free. It only takes 15 minutes to get to the airport and you are cheuferred there in a limozine. BeOS Air only has limited types of planes that only only hold new luggage. All planes are single seaters and the model names all start with an "F" (F-14, F-15, F-16, F-18, etc.). The plane will fly you to your destination on autopilot in half the time of other Airways or you can fly the plane yourself. There are limited destinations, but they are only places you'd want to go to anyway. You tell all your friends how great BeOS Air is and all they say is "What do you mean I can't bring all my old baggage with me?"

Linux Airlines
Disgruntled employees of all the other OS airlines decide to start their own airline. They build the planes, ticket counters, and pave the runways themselves. They charge a small fee to cover the cost of printing the ticket, but you can also download and print the ticket yourself. When you board the plane, you are given a seat, four bolts, a wrench and a copy of the seat-HOWTO.html. Once settled, the fully adjustable seat is very comfortable, the plane leaves and arrives on time without a single problem, the in-flight meal is wonderful. You try to tell customers of the other airlines about the great trip, but all they can say is, "You had to do what with the seat?"

Google Dominates Search Even More This Year

Google accounted for 65.10 percent of all U.S. searches in the four weeks ending December 1, 2007, according to Hitwise. Yahoo! Search, MSN Search and Ask.com each received 21.21, 7.09 and 4.63 percent respectively. The remaining 46 search engines in the Hitwise Search Engine Analysis Tool accounted for 1.96 percent of U.S. searches.

As you might expect, search engines also continue to be the primary way Internet users navigate to key industry categories. Comparing November 2007 to November 2006, the travel, entertainment and business and finance categories showed double digit increases in their share of traffic coming directly from search engines.

at&t Forecasts Strong 2008 Growth

In a forecast that, in some ways, resembles France Telecom's, at&t executives now say the company will achieve double-digit adjusted earnings growth in 2008. Where the forecast resembles France Telecom's projections is the full-year wireline segment, where at&t forecasts 2008 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization in line with 2007. France Telecom executives recently projected 2008 cash flow consistent with 2007.

at&t also expects 2008 wireless EBITDA in the low 40-percent range.

For its U-Verse Internet-based TV project, at&t said it expects to reach more than one million subscribers by the end of 2008.

Longer term, at&t expects adjusted earnings growth in the double-digits and mid-single-digit or better revenue growth. That's another area where at&t and France Telecom have common views. Where 2008 might just keep pace with 2007, growth will accelerate after that.