Would You Bet Against Apple?

You might be the sort of person who bets against Apple. If so, you'll probably bet against Apple succeeding in any significant way with its rumored mobile payments. The argument against success as a retail store payment vehicle (Apple might builds on iTunes for some other payment-related function) probably starts with the "what's the additional value" argument, but that applies to all proposed systems.

The assumption is that Apple's mobile payment system would have to be as convenient as a credit card swipe. That same objection applies to all other systems as well. Some might argue a mobile payment alternative does not save time; Apple won't either; therefore there is no value and no reason to adopt. Apple will have also have to piggyback off of, or have retail partners deploy, the near field communication terminals required on the retailer end of the transaction That's another barrier.

One possible advantage Apple gains with this new payment scheme is Apple mobile payments bypass the credit card processing fees Apple currently pays for each iTunes transaction. Some might question value for retailer partners and end users. If Apple decides to share those savings with retailers, and rewards users with some loyalty program at the same time, there's the answer to "how do retailers and users benefit."

There are big barriers to mobile payments adoption, ranging from handset capabilities and user habits to entrenched and efficient existing payment systems. But big changes in user behavior have occurred before, when the value was understood. That doesn't mean mobile payments will succeed wildly in the next 12 months or even 24 months. But it could, and Apple starts with a different perspective: it doesn't want to disrupt the traditional payments business. It only wants to enhance the value and stickiness of iTunes.

Apple doesn't have to look first and foremost at its potential direct revenue or profit margin. It doesn't worry so much about those things when it sells music or video or movies. It just wants to make iTunes and its "i" devices so useful and popular that people keep buying them. That makes for a dangerous competitor. Essentially, Apple wants to "give away" what other people need to "get paid for." That is the underlying power of disruption in the Internet space, always.

It's too early to know who wins, or whether Apple will be among them, or why it might win. But Apple, and others, will be dangerous to the extent they clearly understand they have existing revenue models that are enhanced if they extend themselves into mobile payments in some way. The best-placed players might just be those with an existing and powerful revenue model that gets more powerful with mobile payments, without the need to make additional revenue from the payments process itself.

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