New Sprint Handsets Q4

Sprint Nextel Corp. will deliver four new wireless handhelds by year's end, including the HTC Touch, featuring touch-screen capabilities similar to Apple Inc.'s iPhone.

The Palm Centro features a full keyboard and touch-screen navigation, while the BlackBerry Pearl 8130 has its SureType keypad of both numeric and alphabetic keys interspersed. The fourth phone is the LG Rumor, featuring a typical phone touch pad and a separate slide QWERTY keyboard.

The Touch allows users to "sweep their finger up the display to launch an animated, three-dimensional interface comprising three screens: Contacts, Media and Applications."

HTC Touch also relies on Windows Mobile 6 Professional as the operating system and most likely will be a quad-band device supporting GSM, GPRS, EDGE and EVDO-A, plus Bluetooth 2.0 and 802.11 b/g Wi-Fi.

There's a sort of odd disquiet out there right now in the VoIP world. It's almost as though VoIP has become something like broadband access. One expects it to be there, but there aren't too many important issues to ponder beyond that. Indeed, any number of other issues now seem to require attention, including various ways to unify communications. Hence the greater interest in all forms of fixed-mobile convergence, presence, communications enabling basic business or consumer processes. Mobility itself now seems more germane than VoIP, in many respects.

ISP Subscriber Growth Favors Tier One Providers

Not that anybody should be surprised by the latest ISP subscriber figures, but large tier one telco and cable providers are racking up more market share while independent mass market providers are losing share. The one countervailing trend is that providers focused on the small and mid-sized business, such as Covad, continue to grow.

For those of you familiar with the SME space, it is, always has been and always will be a fertile segment for independent providers of all sorts. The latest ISP figures only confirm that observation, again.

Massive Email Outage in the Works?

NTP, a patent holding company based in Arlington, Va., is suing Verizon, AT&T, Sprint Nextel and T-Mobile USA for infringing several of its patents, all of which are related to the delivery of e-mail to mobile devices. You might remember that NTP wrung $612.5 million out of Research in Motion for doing so.

In its new round of suits, NTP claims mobile carriers mobile email services also violate those patents.

NTP wants an injunction to stop the infringing actions. Injunction. As in "you will stop delivering email now and then we will go to court to figure out whether you really are infringing or not. Injunction. As in massive North American email outage.

Five of the eight patents NTP claims are being infringed were the subject of NTP's 2001 patent suit against Research in Motion, the maker of the BlackBerry. In November 2002, a jury found that RIM infringed upon NTP's patents.

In 2006 RIM agreed to pay NTP to settle the case.

Lots of Detail for a Phone That Doesn't Exist...

...and which some doubt makes sense. Still, there's growing evidence that mobile software developers are working on services and tools they hope will be packaged with a wireless operating system under wraps at Googleplex and they've been sworn to secrecy, says Business Week reporter Olga Kharif.

Among them: Plusmo, a Santa Clara (Calif.) company that pulls together blogs and news items and sends them to cell phones. Nuance Communications, a Burlington (Mass.) maker of speech-recognition software used in mobile directory assistance services.

Another startup said to be working with Google is 3Jam, a software maker in Menlo Park, Calif., that lets users send text messages to groups of friends.

Google's platform is said to consist of an operating system, mobile versions of Google's existing software, and built-in developer tools. Google is expected to offer an open application programming interface as well.

Since talk of the gPhone emerged, developers whisper that other companies, including Apple, may open their mobile-software platforms to programmers.

Part of that excitement stems from the possibility for developers to tap a new revenue source: mobile advertising, instead of user subscription fees.

Skype Worm Attacking Windows PCs

A computer virus called “w32/Ramex.A” is affecting users of Skype for Windows. Users whose computers are infected with this virus will send a chat message to other Skype users asking them to click on a web link that can infect the computer of the person who receives the message.

“The chat message, of which there are several versions, is cleverly written and may appear to be a legitimate chat message, which may fool some users into clicking on the link," Skype says.

“Skype has been in contact with the leading antivirus software companies about this worm, and we know that they are updating their software to effectively stop this worm and as well as its side effects. Currently, F-Secure, Kaspersky Lab and Symantec have already updated their antivirus products to detect and remove the worm.

The rest of you, watch out!!!

Will Verizon Get Handsets Right?

So the rumor is that Verizon doesn't want to support the Google Phone. It also didn't want to support the iPhone. It isn't going to get future N series Nokia devices. So maybe Samsung or BlackBerry are working on a Verizon exclusive. That at least would explain Verizon's reluctance. Granted, Verizon would be loathe to share revenue in the way the new handset partners prefer. But there is a danger here.

It isn't so clear customers are, or can be made, loyal to a network. No network is an expression of a user's identity or personality. Handsets are. Users just want networks to work. Beyond there, why is there any reason for loyalty?

Some networks work better than others, for all sorts of reasons. I happen to be using at&t, Verizon, Sprint and T-Mobile for various applications and devices. All have some shadow areas. In-building coverage is a problem for all of them. Customer service is radically better from all of them, compared to a few years ago.

T-Mobile's biggest negative is the lack of a 3G network. But Verizon's 3G network rarely delivers the throughput it claims. And everybody has coverage issues. In fact, one of the absolute Verizon dead spots is around our Virginia home.

The point is that loyalty to a network isn't likely going to happen, for me or most anybody else. Handsets are another matter, and that's where Verizon could be making dubious decisions at the moment. Unless there is some killer device waiting in the wings, "the network" isn't going to help them.

Is Voice the Killer App for IMS?

You have seen this story before: a new service rolls out and providers look for the "killer app." Then it turns out the killer app is something people already do, but the innovation allows them to do it in a new way, or maybe a better way.

To some extent, voice is a bit of that sort of thing for broadband Internet access, as email was something approaching a killer app for dial-up Internet access. Though the initial "killer app" for broadband was fast Internet access, voice becomes a very important incremental value.

"We are seeing a pattern in Europe of VoIP being delivered by companies that control the broadband infrastructure," notes Stephan Beckert, TeleGeography analyst. "It's an add-on feature to broadband."

So what is the killer app for fixed-mobile services? It's voice again, allowing legacy providers to hang on to more of their fixed-line business than otherwise; allowing mobile providers to displace landline traffic with mobile; or new providers to displace business phone systems.

So what is the killer app for IP Multimedia Subsystems? Wouldn't it be surprising if it turned out to be voice?

So what's the logic? Assume wireline carriers might lose as much as $13 billion in annual revenues by 2011, in part because 34 percent of U.S. households might elect to go "mobile only." So enter IMS, allowing mobile users to take advantage of cheaper Wi-Fi-based calling over their broadband lines.

Assume the landline carriers then lose just $8 billion in revenue to cord cutters. That's a $5 billion annual revenue stream. So put that in perspective. All U.S. multichannel video providers put together earn about $4 billion a year from pay-per-view and video-on-demand services.

So if wireline carriers just prevent landline erosion, they make more money than the whole U.s. VOD and PPV providers put together.

Voice Mashups Disruptive or Not?

Iotum recently shifted gears and decided to take advantage of Facebook APIs to create a conference call app inside Facebook. Many of you know what Skype has been doing in the area of encouraging third party development around its client. And of course Microsoft has made clear its intention to place communications within the context of every expression of its desktop productivity suite.

Some people would argue this move to voice as an attribute of every application spells the death of traditional "communications as a service." So far, of course, there is no evidence of this, though there is plenty of movement within the service industry. Neither is there any evidence that people communicate less when they have the new tools; the reverse typically being the case.

So far, at any rate, one would have to say that the advent of voice as an application, as an inherent attribute of other experiences and activities, simply is creating incremental revenue opportunities and end user utility. To the extent that it negatively affects the "service" business, providers of services already are transitioning away from reliance on "voice" revenues in any case.

Enterprise phone system providers hope to do the same, and speak only of "unified communications" these days. It isn't the calling, they seem to say; it's the integration. Not an unwise choice given the fact that Microsoft Office Communication Server provides a complete alternative.

But maybe this time around we shouldn't worry so much about disruption. Choice will do nicely. Human beings are starting to have lots more choices, and that's a good thing. Companies will do well providing those choices. It will be enough.

Voice and communications increasingly are available to users as discrete services and integrated applications. This trend isn't going away. But the explosion of choices and richness do not inevitably spell doom, or automatic success, for any contestant. Calling entities "dinosaurs" doesn't hobble them. Nor does "disruption" always succeed. Quite the opposite seems to be true at this point.

iPhone Sales Hit One Million

So there's no question Apple will hit its target of one million sold by the end of September. Apple sold its millionth iPhone last Sunday, just 74 days after the combination cell phone-iPod went on sale and less than a week after its price was cut by a third. Some observers speculate that iPhone sales have sagged of late. We shall see.

Dylan is out of boot camp...

  Headed for South Carolina to do a year's intensive training in nuclear engineering, then up to Annapolis to finish up his aeronautical engineering degree. Then aviation training. Then he has to land his jet on a carrier deck and get it right the first time (one chance only). Anybody who doesn't washes out of the pilot corp immediately. About 40 percent fail to get the tailhook down on one of the three guy wires and it's all over.

Disruption? Maybe Not.

Lots of companies and lots of people have been at the "telecom disruption" game for quite some time, beginning way back with the Carterfone decision and MCI's assault on the long distance calling market. We have had Internet service providers, competitive local exchange carriers, hosted service providers, application providers, instant messaging providers, portals, VoIP providers, cable companies, satellite providers and others attacking one part or another of the global telecom value chain.

Through it all, global communications service revenue has kept climbing. In fact, you'd be hard pressed to find any year when that didn't happen. Perhaps the issue is not disruption at all, but rather transformation. There will be new spaces created, and a rearrangement of older spaces. But nothing has stopped global revenue from climbing, year after year.

Of course, all the analysts could be wrong. Some cataclysm could yet await. But it sure doesn't appear to be something you would build your company on.

Another Outage for BlackBerry

U.S. Internet-based users of the Research in Motion BlackBerry service might have noticed, and might still be noticing odd behavior from their handhelds. Like, no mail parts of Friday, and then huge dumps of what you thought was archived mail thereafter. If so, it might be because RIM had another outage of some significance last Friday, Sept. 7. That's two significant outages this year.

All of us may someday lament the fact that no service we now enjoy and rely upon has the ruggedness and uptime of the old public switched network.

Apple iPhone Price Cut is, Oddly, About the Buzz

Equity analysts and presumably some investors are said to be quite unhappy about the $200 price reduction on the eight gigabyte vesion of the iPhone, which now sell for $399, $200 less than the price consumers paid just three months ago when the iPhone launched on June 29. "Leaving margin on the table" is the problem.

Apple announced a credit of $100 for early buyers after the price reduction. The credit is a bit unusual. The timing of the price cut is quite unusual. Apple has in the past waited as much as a year to drop prices on a device.

Some say the move is a significant strategic and tactical misstep. Maybe. But Apple once again gets huge buzz, refocusing attention a couple months after the splashy launch. Lower than anticipated sales is unlikely to be a drive, as the company stands by its initial projection of one million sales by the end of the quarter.

It might sell twice as many. Nobody knows yet. Undoubtedly some thought was given beforehand to the customer irritation factor. The credit could have been part of the plan, not an afterthought when a hue and cry arose about the unfairness of the price cut for early buyers.

Yes, there is some margin hit. But Apple now stands ready to move past the "gotta have it" early adopter crowd and occupy other niches in the market. Just what niches is the issue. Everybody intuitively understands that a BlackBerry is "email in your pocket."

I'm still having trouble coming up with a simple description of what precise niche the iPhone occupies. It might be the "heavy iPod user who doesn't want to carry a mobile phone." The iPhone might simply be a communicating iPod. It doesn't seem quite right to say it occupies the "whole Internet in your pocket" position.

It might more plausibly be something like an "easy to use mobile phone" positioning, analogous to the way the early Apple PCs held that niche in a world of command line interfaces. Graphical user interface is then the idea; "mouse"-based instead of "C: prompt"; finger rather than scroll wheel or button.

With the price cuts, Apple gets a chance to establish something more like its ultimate market position, as enough users are aggregated to figure out how end users view the device. Right now it still seems to be a device whose niche is evolving.

Microsoft Vista Service Pack Near Beta

As a follow-up to his email sent to Microsoft execs about Vista issues, Alec Saunders says: "Coincident with my note to Microsoft about Windows Vista quality yesterday, Microsoft let it be known that Vista SP1 would be going into beta in a couple of weeks, and surprise surprise, a substantial focus is on quality."

"Following the email I sent, two Microsoft senior execs responded yesterday — Steven Sinofsky who runs with the Windows platform organization, and Jeff Raikes, President of the Business Division. Among the many things in Raikes' mails was a question about how well I liked Office 2007, a product that I absolutely love. When I told him that, he observed that Sinofsky was the VP in charge of shipping Office 2007, and that he was applying many of the same methodologies to Windows Vista."

"Sinofsky gently chided me for having rose colored glasses, observing that PnP in Windows 95 routinely fried his network cards. Perhaps, he was saying, Windows Vista isn't as bad as I've described it. Nonetheless, he acknowledged that two key areas of focus for his team right now are application compatibility, and the video subsystem. Many of the Windows updates that go out are focused on these two areas, and that seems to be a good chunk of the focus in SP1 as well."

"Time will tell. As John McKinley pointed out, this is a franchise issue for them. They have to get it right."

Mitel Inter-Tel Merger: Dan York is Available

Maybe LinkedIn or Plaxo is useful for such things, though I prefer Facebook. So if you can help Dan, contact him at Facebook. His last day at Mitel is September 21. Here's what he's thinking:

"What's next? I'm not sure, to be honest, as there are several pathways. I'd love to run back up to the crow's nest and perform that kind of analysis, investigation, exploration/communication or evangelism for a company in the IP telephony and unified communications space, especially with a focus on social networking and social media.

I think its a great fit with my technical, strategic, marketing and communication skills - and I think sites like Facebook will have a profound effect on our communication. I'd love to help explore and guide people through that space. Having said that, I definitely recognize that those roles are few and far between. I may look into something focused in the VOIP security space, where I've obviously got some great depth and experience, or something related to IETF standards, another strong interest of mine. I've considered some form of strategic consulting, or joining the analyst ranks. There are a couple of books I'd like to write. There's a startup idea I'm pondering. As is obvious, I completely enjoy blogging, podcasting, etc. and may pursue a role focused in those areas - or in community development, another strength. And then there's always returning to my open source roots in the Linux space...

Whatever the case, my aim is to be with of an organization that is part of the disruption in this space (or at the very least chronicling the disruption).

Right now I'd love to hear from folks who have openings in any of those various areas (or know of such openings). Please do email me - or contact me via Facebook or Skype. For folks in the IT telephony/unified communication's space, I'll be out at the Internet Telephony Conference & Expo next week in Los Angeles and would be delighted to speak with folks there. (As I mentioned previously, I'll be speaking there.) Information about my background can be obtained at LinkedIn (http://www.linkedin.com/in/danyork )

In my ideal world, I'd love to find a role that lets me continue to live in Burlington, VT, (with some amount of travel) since we're nicely settled in here and love the area."