Build For Your Kids, Not Your Father

A recent survey by CIO Insight suggests chief information officers use (or think they ought to say they use) Internet video, wikis, blogs, really simple syndication, podcasts and social networking. Twitter and Second Life don't get nearly the same levels of use.

iPhone for O2: Zero Margin for Carrier

Mobile operator O2 (Telefonica) reportedly has won the right to sell the Apple iPhone in the U.K. market. It may ultimately regret the victory, as the Guardian reports O2 is giving Apple 40 percent of service revenues.

The other U.K. mobile operators reportedly backed away from the deal as the O2 business arrangement essentially is a guaranteed money loser. O2 of course is gambling it can leverage the deal to take share from its U.K. competitors.

As part of the deal, Carphone Warehouse will act as an authorized retailer for O2 as well. Apple apparently retains control of device pricing.

The deal is part of a number of potential destabilizing developments in the mobile business. It isn't simply who is in the networks business. It also is where value and hence profit are to be made in the mobile ecosystem. Apple thinks it is the phone. Google might think it is the ability to create targeted advertising. Other players, such as satellite TV providers, might see value in the ability to create a triple play including broadband access and voice.

In the U.S. market there is the possibility of bids for 700 MHz spectrum, enough to construct a national broadband network. Google has said it likely will bid, and Apple itself is said to be considering its own bid. Other contestants in need of a terrestrial broadband capability, such as DirecTV and EchoStar, have to be weighing their own options as well.

Buying a transmission network is a costly way to create an application delivery network. But there are precedents. Broadcast TV, radio, cable TV, cellular, paging, satellite TV and telephone networks all were built to provide a single "killer" application. Apple could be looking at 700 MHz as a way of jumpstarting mobile video. Google is more interested in mobile advertising. The satellite providers would gain a terrestrial broadband and voice capability to create a triple play under their own control.

One might question whether any new firm focused on new applications would want the headaches of running a network. One might question whether the advantage of owning a network is really worth what it would cost to acquire spectrum and construct a network. But it is a measure of destabilization that such developments are being pondered.

Separately, T-Mobile is expected to win exclusive iPhone rights in Germany, while Orange wins that right in France. At this point, Apple is betting the device trumps the network. The U.K. iPhone will use the slower 2.5G EDGE network, not the faster 3G network.

Verizon FiOS Getting Ready to Blow Down Doors

Readers of ComputerWorld might not be "typical" U.S. consumers. Neither might members of the ChangeWave Alliance, as both will skew much more heavily into the technological savvy end of the customer spectrum. But there's growing evidence that at least for these lead elements of the technology-buying and influencing market, Verizon's FiOS is poised to take significant share.

Not that "satisfaction" is any guarantee of loyalty, but FiOS customers seem significantly happier than Comcast cable modem customers, for example. And on the "I'm going to switch" front, limited FiOS availability, like limited iPhone stock, has depressed sales. That will change, if ChangeWave member sentiments are any indication.

In fact, of users who say they are going to change video providers, the percentage of users who say they intend to switch to FiOS or another fiber-to-customer service is 300 percent higher than the percentage of users that say they will switch to cable for TV service.

So Verizon and at&t simply have to get their networks in front of more customers.

DT Gets iPhone?

T-Mobile appears to be the exclusive carrier for the iPhone in Germany next week. Apple reportedly has a revenue sharing deal similar to that with at&t, in which Apple collects a portion of the monthly subscription fees. Pricing will reportedly be set at 399 Euros ($554) for an 8GB model. It isn't clear whether 3G support is forthcoming.

Pantech Duo for at&t

Touch screen smart phones aren't universally desired. So at&t is introducing a dual-sliding phone like the Helio Ocean, but using the Windows Mobile 6 operating system. The Pantech Duo uses the 3G network, , a sleek-looking dual-slider that zips along on their 3G HSDPA network, has a 1.3-megapixel camera, and can do push email.

Samsung Croix for Vodafone

As expected, the iPhone is changing smart phone design, pushing devices in the direction of more capability as media players. That ultimately will have repercussions for enterprise information technology managers as well, since business users are going to want to use such devices.

The Samsung F700V Croix will be introduced by Vodafone as an "iPhone killer" when Apple's device is introduced in European markets.

The Croix features a 3.2-inch touchscreen and 3G access using HSDPA running at a 3.6Mbps peak download rate. It has front and rear cameras for video calling and capture. The Croix should play AAC and MP3 songs as well as H.264, MPEG-4, and Real videos.

The device closely resembles the minimalist design of Apple's iPhone. A single navigation button near the bottom of the phone resembles the single button on Apple's iPhone, while rounded corners and a rectangular shape give the Ultra Smart F700 an iPhone-like appearance. The device includes a slide-out keyboard to accommodate typing and Web browsing.

The Croix also features 5-megapixel camera offering auto-focus.

Credit Facebook for Force.com

Force.com is an on-demand application development platform that will extend Salesforce.com's subscriber base far beyond traditional business software users sometime in 2008. And you can bet Facebook's success as an applications platform had something to do with the decision.

Force.com will give customers, developers and independent software vendors the ability to create custom applications and user interfaces that can be accessed from desktop PCs, iPhones or retail kiosks using the Salesforce.com service. That's the advantage from the end user perspective.

For developers and hosts, there are other advantages, such as ability to create and support new applications without the need for new Web servers and data center facilities. The new platform will operate in much more of an on-demand basis, as a result.

Visualforce uses HTML, AJAX and Flex programming languages.

New Sprint Handsets Q4

Sprint Nextel Corp. will deliver four new wireless handhelds by year's end, including the HTC Touch, featuring touch-screen capabilities similar to Apple Inc.'s iPhone.

The Palm Centro features a full keyboard and touch-screen navigation, while the BlackBerry Pearl 8130 has its SureType keypad of both numeric and alphabetic keys interspersed. The fourth phone is the LG Rumor, featuring a typical phone touch pad and a separate slide QWERTY keyboard.

The Touch allows users to "sweep their finger up the display to launch an animated, three-dimensional interface comprising three screens: Contacts, Media and Applications."

HTC Touch also relies on Windows Mobile 6 Professional as the operating system and most likely will be a quad-band device supporting GSM, GPRS, EDGE and EVDO-A, plus Bluetooth 2.0 and 802.11 b/g Wi-Fi.

There's a sort of odd disquiet out there right now in the VoIP world. It's almost as though VoIP has become something like broadband access. One expects it to be there, but there aren't too many important issues to ponder beyond that. Indeed, any number of other issues now seem to require attention, including various ways to unify communications. Hence the greater interest in all forms of fixed-mobile convergence, presence, communications enabling basic business or consumer processes. Mobility itself now seems more germane than VoIP, in many respects.

ISP Subscriber Growth Favors Tier One Providers

Not that anybody should be surprised by the latest ISP subscriber figures, but large tier one telco and cable providers are racking up more market share while independent mass market providers are losing share. The one countervailing trend is that providers focused on the small and mid-sized business, such as Covad, continue to grow.

For those of you familiar with the SME space, it is, always has been and always will be a fertile segment for independent providers of all sorts. The latest ISP figures only confirm that observation, again.

Massive Email Outage in the Works?

NTP, a patent holding company based in Arlington, Va., is suing Verizon, AT&T, Sprint Nextel and T-Mobile USA for infringing several of its patents, all of which are related to the delivery of e-mail to mobile devices. You might remember that NTP wrung $612.5 million out of Research in Motion for doing so.

In its new round of suits, NTP claims mobile carriers mobile email services also violate those patents.

NTP wants an injunction to stop the infringing actions. Injunction. As in "you will stop delivering email now and then we will go to court to figure out whether you really are infringing or not. Injunction. As in massive North American email outage.

Five of the eight patents NTP claims are being infringed were the subject of NTP's 2001 patent suit against Research in Motion, the maker of the BlackBerry. In November 2002, a jury found that RIM infringed upon NTP's patents.

In 2006 RIM agreed to pay NTP to settle the case.

Lots of Detail for a Phone That Doesn't Exist...

...and which some doubt makes sense. Still, there's growing evidence that mobile software developers are working on services and tools they hope will be packaged with a wireless operating system under wraps at Googleplex and they've been sworn to secrecy, says Business Week reporter Olga Kharif.

Among them: Plusmo, a Santa Clara (Calif.) company that pulls together blogs and news items and sends them to cell phones. Nuance Communications, a Burlington (Mass.) maker of speech-recognition software used in mobile directory assistance services.

Another startup said to be working with Google is 3Jam, a software maker in Menlo Park, Calif., that lets users send text messages to groups of friends.

Google's platform is said to consist of an operating system, mobile versions of Google's existing software, and built-in developer tools. Google is expected to offer an open application programming interface as well.

Since talk of the gPhone emerged, developers whisper that other companies, including Apple, may open their mobile-software platforms to programmers.

Part of that excitement stems from the possibility for developers to tap a new revenue source: mobile advertising, instead of user subscription fees.

Skype Worm Attacking Windows PCs

A computer virus called “w32/Ramex.A” is affecting users of Skype for Windows. Users whose computers are infected with this virus will send a chat message to other Skype users asking them to click on a web link that can infect the computer of the person who receives the message.

“The chat message, of which there are several versions, is cleverly written and may appear to be a legitimate chat message, which may fool some users into clicking on the link," Skype says.

“Skype has been in contact with the leading antivirus software companies about this worm, and we know that they are updating their software to effectively stop this worm and as well as its side effects. Currently, F-Secure, Kaspersky Lab and Symantec have already updated their antivirus products to detect and remove the worm.

The rest of you, watch out!!!

Will Verizon Get Handsets Right?

So the rumor is that Verizon doesn't want to support the Google Phone. It also didn't want to support the iPhone. It isn't going to get future N series Nokia devices. So maybe Samsung or BlackBerry are working on a Verizon exclusive. That at least would explain Verizon's reluctance. Granted, Verizon would be loathe to share revenue in the way the new handset partners prefer. But there is a danger here.

It isn't so clear customers are, or can be made, loyal to a network. No network is an expression of a user's identity or personality. Handsets are. Users just want networks to work. Beyond there, why is there any reason for loyalty?

Some networks work better than others, for all sorts of reasons. I happen to be using at&t, Verizon, Sprint and T-Mobile for various applications and devices. All have some shadow areas. In-building coverage is a problem for all of them. Customer service is radically better from all of them, compared to a few years ago.

T-Mobile's biggest negative is the lack of a 3G network. But Verizon's 3G network rarely delivers the throughput it claims. And everybody has coverage issues. In fact, one of the absolute Verizon dead spots is around our Virginia home.

The point is that loyalty to a network isn't likely going to happen, for me or most anybody else. Handsets are another matter, and that's where Verizon could be making dubious decisions at the moment. Unless there is some killer device waiting in the wings, "the network" isn't going to help them.

Is Voice the Killer App for IMS?

You have seen this story before: a new service rolls out and providers look for the "killer app." Then it turns out the killer app is something people already do, but the innovation allows them to do it in a new way, or maybe a better way.

To some extent, voice is a bit of that sort of thing for broadband Internet access, as email was something approaching a killer app for dial-up Internet access. Though the initial "killer app" for broadband was fast Internet access, voice becomes a very important incremental value.

"We are seeing a pattern in Europe of VoIP being delivered by companies that control the broadband infrastructure," notes Stephan Beckert, TeleGeography analyst. "It's an add-on feature to broadband."

So what is the killer app for fixed-mobile services? It's voice again, allowing legacy providers to hang on to more of their fixed-line business than otherwise; allowing mobile providers to displace landline traffic with mobile; or new providers to displace business phone systems.

So what is the killer app for IP Multimedia Subsystems? Wouldn't it be surprising if it turned out to be voice?

So what's the logic? Assume wireline carriers might lose as much as $13 billion in annual revenues by 2011, in part because 34 percent of U.S. households might elect to go "mobile only." So enter IMS, allowing mobile users to take advantage of cheaper Wi-Fi-based calling over their broadband lines.

Assume the landline carriers then lose just $8 billion in revenue to cord cutters. That's a $5 billion annual revenue stream. So put that in perspective. All U.S. multichannel video providers put together earn about $4 billion a year from pay-per-view and video-on-demand services.

So if wireline carriers just prevent landline erosion, they make more money than the whole U.s. VOD and PPV providers put together.

Voice Mashups Disruptive or Not?

Iotum recently shifted gears and decided to take advantage of Facebook APIs to create a conference call app inside Facebook. Many of you know what Skype has been doing in the area of encouraging third party development around its client. And of course Microsoft has made clear its intention to place communications within the context of every expression of its desktop productivity suite.

Some people would argue this move to voice as an attribute of every application spells the death of traditional "communications as a service." So far, of course, there is no evidence of this, though there is plenty of movement within the service industry. Neither is there any evidence that people communicate less when they have the new tools; the reverse typically being the case.

So far, at any rate, one would have to say that the advent of voice as an application, as an inherent attribute of other experiences and activities, simply is creating incremental revenue opportunities and end user utility. To the extent that it negatively affects the "service" business, providers of services already are transitioning away from reliance on "voice" revenues in any case.

Enterprise phone system providers hope to do the same, and speak only of "unified communications" these days. It isn't the calling, they seem to say; it's the integration. Not an unwise choice given the fact that Microsoft Office Communication Server provides a complete alternative.

But maybe this time around we shouldn't worry so much about disruption. Choice will do nicely. Human beings are starting to have lots more choices, and that's a good thing. Companies will do well providing those choices. It will be enough.

Voice and communications increasingly are available to users as discrete services and integrated applications. This trend isn't going away. But the explosion of choices and richness do not inevitably spell doom, or automatic success, for any contestant. Calling entities "dinosaurs" doesn't hobble them. Nor does "disruption" always succeed. Quite the opposite seems to be true at this point.