How PC Usage is Different from Mobile

To state the obvious, users behave differently on their mobile devices than they do on their PCs, which ought to have implications for a world where perhaps half to two thirds of all Web and Internet access is from a mobile device.

A study of 16 information workers over a period of time illustrates some of the differences (again, keeping in mind that habits likely continue to evolve).

Mobile service providers, for example, know there is a huge difference between users on PCs and smartphone users.

Namely, PC users consume lots more data. And that is what the study conducted by Microsoft and the University of Washington also noted. The other obvious observation was that phones are used for voice and text messaging. PCs can be used for those applications, but in this study of office workers, that was not the case.

And productivity applications, though important for desktop use, was not the focus on mobiles, where "maps" seem to be more important, as you might expect. Users relied on both devices for email and Web access. Beyond that, the usage profiles were different.

Aside from the sheer difference in volume, understandable given the "on the go" nature of a mobile phone, users did different things on their mobiles. One might hypothesize that mobile device input-output limitations and time constraints (people are on the go) account for much of the difference in behavior. Heavy document or file interactions are not prevalent on mobiles.

That doesn't mean people will stop doing things at their desks that require full PC support. It does suggest that as use of mobiles becomes a bigger driver of Internet usage, the key applications will change. Mobiles are "becoming PCs," but that does not mean they will be used the same way, at all. The Microsoft study simply confirms that fact.

Mobile Broadband Will Need a New Business Model

One way or the other, something has got to change in the mobile business as voice ceases to be the industry revenue driver. Today mobile service providers get 86 percent of their revenue from low-bandwidth applications like voice and text. But that will keep changing in predictable ways.

Namely, most capacity requirements will be driven by low-margin data rather than high-margin voice and text.  Over the long term, it is irrational to better price services in relationship to cost without attributing more revenue directly to the data services that are driving capital investment.

That doesn't mean every single service or application necessarily has to be priced in relationship to cost. Loss leaders at supermarkets, promotional DVD prices at Target and other promotional pricing happens all the time, in every business. Some products have high margin, others low or even negative margins.

The point is that current retail pricing will get more irrational as data demand grows, and that something will have to be done about it.

Carriers are investing in new capacity, but that alone will not be enough to bring revenue and capacity into balance. By 2013, virtually all traffic load will be driven by broadband data of one sort or another, especially video. That means, over time, new ways of charging for network usage will have to be created.

Like it or not, network management is going to be necessary, plus traffic offload and policy management. The issue, in part, is that demand is unevenly distributed. Even at peak hours of congestion, only a minor percentage of cell sites actually account for most of the congestion. To speak of congestion management at the "whole network" level is not to capture the issue.

The key issue is peak-hour congestion at perhaps 10 percent to 15 percent of sites. Put another way, even at peak congestion, 85 to 90 percent of sites do not experience difficulty. That means it might be necessary to use different policies at a small number of physical sites, not the entire network, even at peak hours.

So even if traffic shaping, bit priority policies and other tools are not generally required at every site, for every application or user, there will be a need to do so at some sites, some of the time.

Apple and RIM Are Winners in Handset Market, Profit-Wise

The Apple iPhone might not be the only reason the mobile handset market has changed over the past several years, but it is a major influence, according to a new analysis by analysts at Deutsche Bank.

In 2006, before the iPhone was available, Nokia had nearly half--47 percent--of industry profits. By the end of 2010, it will have 25 percent.

In 2006, Sony Ericsson had 11 percent share. By the end of 2010 it will have a negative one percent operating profit.

Motorola had 18 percent share in 2006 and will have declined to about a negative one percent by the end of 2010.

By the end of 2010 Apple will have an estimated 37 percent share, while Research in Motion, which had four percent share in 2006, will have grown to 16 percent.

Most of the other suppliers will have remained about where they were in 2006, except for Lucky Goldstar, which will have grown from one percent to six percent.

Keep in mind, these figures reflect profits, not handset share.

Conferencing Now Part of UC, Study Finds

UC is often thought of as a broad solution set including a unified directory, unified messaging, a single number (find me, follow me), presence awareness and the ability to track all forms of communication, say Josie Sephton and Dale Vile, Freeform Dynamics researchers.

What seems to have changed lately is the increased role conferencing solutions seem to be playing as parts of an integrated UC solution. Among lead adopters, audio conferencing is viewed as a mandatory feature by more than 70 percent of information technology executives surveyed by Freeform Dynamics.

More than 40 percent of all respondents said that audio conferencing is mandatory (Click on image to see larger view).

Nearly 20 percent of the most-aggressive UC adopters say video calling is mandatory, while more than 65 percent say that features is "desirable." So far, fewer than 10 percent of all respondents say video calling is mandatory.

About 25 percent of early UC adopters say video conferencing is a mandatory UC feature, and about 55 percent of early adopters say Web conferencing is a mandatory UC feature.

Instant messaging is seen by more than 80 percent of early adopters as a mandatory feature. Nearly 40 percent of all enterprise IT executives say IM is necessary.

Mobile Marketing Works Better Than Online, Study Finds

Mobile marketing campaigns score 4.5 to 5 times higher than online campaigns on unaided awareness, aided awareness, ad awareness, message association, brand favorability and purchase intent, according to a new study by InsightExpress.

Is Mobile Marketing the "Best" Advertising Channel?

There's a very good reason many content providers, marketers, device manufacturers and application developers  are intrigued by the mobile platform as an advertising venue.

Some researchers say it can outperform every other alternative, including "fixed" online channels, by quite some margin.

Some of us would quibble about whether it is so vastly superior on some dimensions. Some of us would argue TV is just as powerful as mobile on the "emotion" scale, and that lumping "print" in the same category as 'TV" makes no sense. Print is a "lower emotion" channel, compared to TV or even radio.

And this matrix is only a look at "potential" effectiveness. Advertising effectiveness depends on the quality of the creative material and many other factors beyond the mere choice of channel. Still, the potential reach and effectiveness of mobile marketing is clear, if perhaps overstated in this analysis.

Social Networking Drives Mobile Web Activities

Without much fanfare, social networking has become a "killer app" for the mobile Web use by smartphone or feature phone users.

Or at least that is what one would surmise based on recent data from GroundTruth, which shows that more than 60 percent of U.S. mobile Web page views are to social networking sites.

A separate study by the GSM Association shows that in December 2009, about half the time they actually were using their mobile Internet access, U.K. mobile users accessing the Internet from their mobiles were going to Facebook.

So far, social networking is developing as the killer app for mobile broadband.

Why Do People Watch Online Video?

Cord cutting, the substitution of online video for cable, satellite or telco TV, is not the reason most people watch online video, a new study by Nielsen suggests.

In fact, online video watching competes most with digital video recorder viewing. People essentially are time shifting their viewing, not replacing linear TV as the "cord cutting" thesis suggests.

We are in Uncharted Territory, But Get Ready for Change

This graph shows U.S. job losses from the start of the recent recession, in percentage terms. As you can see at a glance, the recession has been an outlyer. Click chart for a larger view.

As they say, "we are in uncharted territory." I use the past tense deliberately, meaning only that by most measures, we passed through the bottom as early as March 2009 and are now, in halting fits and starts, in a growth mode.

So it might be time to stop talking about "recession-induced" behavior, even though we are, by the most recent estimate, down about 8.1 million jobs since the recession began. All other things being equal, it makes most sense to look for signs of changing behavior as the recovery takes hold, as slow as that might be.

As Canadian hockey great Wayne Gretzky once quipped, you don't skate to where the puck is now; you skate to where the puck is going to be. The adage, as it applies to most providers of goods and services, is to anticipate rebuilding, rather than extrapolating from recession behavior permanently into the future.

The main thing now, despite the severity of the downturn, is how behavior will start changing. It is as important to anticipate what people will do, instead of gearing one's business to "how they have been recently behaving."

The reason is simple: by definition, the economic background is changing, meaning people will start to have opportunities to change recent behaviors. As the economy recovers, new discretionary spending is going to build. It will be spent somewhere. So the issue is anticipating how, and skating to the puck.

What Does Text Message Actually Cost a Heavy Teen User?

The frivolous answer to the question "what does text messaging cost a teenager" is "nothing," because a parent is paying. Perhaps a better way to phrase the question is "what does text messaging cost the parental unit paying for the service?"

Nielsen might have an answer. The research firm analyzes more than 40,000 mobile bills every month to determine what consumers actually are spending. The results suggest "staggering" levels of usage.

American teenagers are consuming 3,146 messages a month, which translates into more than 10 messages every hour of the month that they are not sleeping or in school.

Even the under-12 users aer sending 1,146 messages per month, which is almost four text messages per waking hour that they are not at school.

One thought you already should be having is that there is no way usage at that level is occurring on an "a la carte" basis. And you are right. Only a very small percentage of people who text message are doing so on a pay-as-you-go basis, which typically means a 20-cent per message rate.

Most users have buckets of usage. Because of that, most users are paying about one cent for each message.

From the first quarter of 2008 to the third quarter 2009, the effective price of a text message has decreased by 47 percent, in large part because so many users now are on unlimited or heavy texting plans.

Global Reach of North American Mobile Sites: 80%

About 80 percent of North American mobile Web sites have substantial traffic from around the world, a study by Motally finds.

"If you divide the world into seven regions--North America, South America, Europe, Asia, Africa , Middle East and Oceania--80 percent of mobile sites get traffic from at least three regions outside their own. About 72 percent of applications are used in four or more regions, Motally says.

“Any investment in the mobile Web hould at least consider a global audience,” Motally says.

About 53 percent of sites and 41 percent of apps in Motally’s study drew significant visitors from all seven regions.

The other important finding is that feature phones, particularly in regions like South America, Asia and even Europe, are important devices for mobile Web traffic.

While feature phones aren’t a major component of U.S. mobile websites, they are responsible for over 20 percent of traffic in Europe and for over 40 percent in Asia and South America.

AT&T Seen Keeping iPhone Exclusivity Until 2012

AT&T will likely keep its exclusive hold on the iPhone for the next 12-18 months, rather than ending its exclusivity in mid-2010, says Jonathan Chaplin of Credit Suisse.""

"We believe there is a 75 percent probability that AT&T keeps exclusivity in 2010," says Chaplin.
"We conclude that there is only a 50 percent probability" that AT&T loses its exclusivity agreement at the end of 2010.

Chaplin also believes AT&T can afford to compensate Apple at a rate high enough that Apple could reasonably conclude it has essentially nothing to gain by allowing Verizon or other carriers to sell the iPhone.

http://gigaom.com/2010/02/04/att-seen-keeping-the-iphone-through-2011-analyst/

Giving Up on Hulu, Going Back to Cable

It's just one subscriber's view, but Dan Frommer of Silicon Alley says his experiment with getting all his entertainment video from Hulu and other sources has failed.

Two years ago, he thought he could do it.

Now, he says, "I really like having it." High-definition programming is part of the reason. But the main reason is that "there's still way too much good stuff that's not online."

"Anything that relies on a live, nationwide cable audience, like most live sports, or the Oscars, or "MythBusters," isn't going to be available for free online for a long time," he says.

"So while the "Hulu household" experiment was fine, I'm actually pretty glad it's over," he says.

"I agree with Henry Blodget that the TV industry is eventually going to be severely disrupted by the Internet, and eventually, I hope that I'll be able to get everything I want to watch online," he still maintains.

But it's going to take longer than it should, because TV companies are still fairly insulated -- especially as Comcast buys NBC -- and can protect their legacy business models for a while longer.

Bad and Worse News on Job Front

Unemployment rose in most cities and counties in December, signaling that companies remain reluctant to hire even as the economy recovers, according to a new report from the U.S. Labor Department.

The unemployment rate rose in 306 of 372 metro areas, the Labor Department says. As bad as that is, matters may be worse.

Job losses during the recession may have been underestimated by close to a million jobs. The prevailing figure is that the recent recession cost more than seven million jobs. It appears the Labor Department might have to revise those numbers, making the actual total eight million.

The shockingly bad news is that over the last 10 years, according to ADP data, the United States actually has added no net new jobs.

In December 2000 there were 111.65 million U.S. employees working. In January 2010 there were 108.14 million Americans working.

In May 2008 there were 115.2 million U.S. workers. That means the country must add back 7.1 million jobs--or more likely 8.1 million--to get back to where it was before the recent recession began.

That raises a question many of us have not been asking. Up to this point, the issue has been "when will the recession end?" with the implicit assumption that a relatively normal job recovery pattern would follow.

The recovery appears to have started, though we will have to wait for some time to date the actual turning. point.

The new question is what happens to growth rates and job recovery as the recovery continues.

Some have argued that consumer behavior has permanently altered because of the severity of the recession, which would imply a slower rate of growth, even if other negatives were not in place.

But there is no way to test the thesis of new consumer behavior patterns in the near term, because it will take years before consumers really are free to choose new patterns of behavior. There is a difference between "permanent" changes in behavior and "temporary" changes. We seem at the moment stuck in a "temporary" mode: people simply are not free to change their behavior at the moment. So long-term conclusions cannot be drawn.

That has obvious implications for the marketing of most consumer products and services. The recession is over, but recessionary buying habits will persist for some time. We cannot know whether these changes are permanent or cyclical.

Will Facebook Become a News Portal?

Is Facebook encouraging direct distribution of news content? Yes. Will it become an important "news portal"? That's hard to say, yet. But there is no question more news is appearing on Facebook, and that Facebook is encouraging that trend.

"Your friends on Facebook help you cut through the clutter so you can read what's most relevant to you, discover new items and carry on thoughtful discussions," says the Facebook blog.

"Just as your friends can post news throughout the day, so do many news outlets," Facebook says. By connecting with friends' Facebook Pages, users can stay updated and interact with outlets such as The New York Times, The Guardian and CNN, CBS Evening News and CNBC, Facebook suggests.

"At any given time, the news on your home page can consist of celebrity gossip posted by your sister, sports scores from the ESPN Page, and a political debate among your friends as they cite their favorite blogs," Facebook notes. "With so much information at your fingertips on one site, Facebook can serve as your personalized news channel.

By way of comparison, Google Reader recently accounted for .01 percent of upstream visits to news and media websites Google News accounted for 1.39 percent of visits and Facebook 3.52 percent.

In fact, Facebook recently was the fourth-largest source of visits to news sites, after Google, Yahoo! and msn.