86% of Firefox Revenue Might be at Risk

Financial analysts get squeamish when too much of any company's revenue comes from a single, dominant customer. If so, Mozilla should make virtually all analysts blanch. Fully 86 percent of Mozilla's revenue in 2009 came from a single customer, Google.

There are a couple of dangers here any analyst would note. First, Google now has launched Chrome, its own browser. To be sure, Chrome has perhaps nine percent share of the browser market while Firefox, Mozilla's offering, has about 23 percent. That likely means Google still will want to pay Mozilla for access to premiere placement in the search pane.

So would Google renew its contract with Mozilla after November 2011? That depends on how many search queries, and how much revenue, Google gets from the deal today. If the money outweighs Google's long-term strategic plans for Chrome, then Firefox is safe.

But as Chrome encroaches on Firefox's market share, there will come a tipping point where the search deal no longer makes sense for Google.

Is November 2011 Armageddon For Firefox?