Tablets Will Cannibalize 10% of PCs by 2014

Growing consumer appetite for substitute devices will cannibalize about 10 percent of global PC sales by 2014, while smartphones are likely to displace some additional percentage of sales, particularly in developing markets, Gartner analysts predict.

In fact, one illustration of how much device trends have changed in less than a year can be gleaned by forecasts of "emerging devices" published as recently as January 2010.

One such forecast, published by Strategy Analytics, shows no "tablet" or "media tablet" category at all. In all likelihood, tablets are going to displace a portion of the forecast notebook and netbook sales.

Growing user interest in media tablets such as the iPad also is affecting near-term sales, said Ranjit Atwal, research director at Gartner.

“PC market growth will be impacted by devices that enable better on-the-go content consumption such as media tablets and next-generation smartphones,” said Raphael Vasquez, research analyst at Gartner. “These devices will be increasing embraced as complements if not substitutes for PCs where voice and light data consumption are desired."