Study Looks at Impact of Comcast-NBCU Merger on Subscriber Fees

In a new economic study released today, the American Cable Association predicts that consumers over the next nine years will pay at least $2.4 billion more for pay-television service as a result of unrestrained pricing power that will flow from the combination of Comcast Corp. and NBC Universal.

What isn't clear to me is whether the predicted price increases for national and satellite, telco and regional cable operators because of the merger is greater than the estimates a reasonable economist might have made for annual price increases based strictly on "programming cost" rationale. The study seems to assume an average of about 22 percent a month fee increases to distributors, and a typical fee for NBCU national networks of about $1.56 per subscriber, per month.

Those estimates are derived from 2009 per subscriber per month subscription fees for the NBCU national cable networks estimated at USA - $.55, CNBC - $.29, SyFy -$.21, Bravo - $.19, MSNBC - $.16, Oxygen = $.10, and mun2 - .06, for a total of $1.56.

The study also assumes an increase in retransmission consent fees for the NBC over-the-air signals of about 50 cents per subscriber, per month.

You can be the judge of the merits of the argument.

http://www.americancable.org/files/110810%20Rogerson%20III%20Ex%20Parte%20Comcast-NBCU%20FINAL.pdf