Patent Wars Will Change the Handset Market

You have to say one thing: aggressive patent litigation by Microsoft and Apple has put into motion some potentially big changes in the mobile handset market. The value and wisdom of Google's purchase of Motorola Mobility cannot be determined yet. But it is clear enough that Google, acting to protect the rest of the Android ecosystem, had to act boldly to gain more protection from the patent litigation, one way or the other.

It isn't so clear what else might happen, nor is it clear that the HP decision to get out of the WebOS business as a retailer is related in any substantial way to the patent litigation wars (HP had lots of other practical reasons for making that decision). But some major handset manufacturers now have to consider whether they should develop their own operating systems, a tough decision indeed, join or stick with the Microsoft ecosystem or stay with Android.

Microsoft, of course, has its own favored partner in Nokia, so the old "open system" approach has changed, in any case, for Microsoft licensees. It isn't clear what will happen with Motorola, but at the very least, Google will have a similar relationship with Motorola as Microsoft has with Nokia, namely a "most favored" licensee.

It isn't as though the whole market now coalesces into a relatively small number of relatively closed ecosystems, but that cannot be discounted. That doesn't mean an end to the "closed" versus "open" strategies, but it probably means a more-nuanced approach to each strategy.

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