Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Will Apple Be a Force, Long Term?

There likely are few people who believe anything truly significant will change at Apple over the next couple to several years under Tim Cook, Apple's new CEO.

 Some might even think Apple wouldn't change much for as much as five more years. But, at some point, there likely are many people who think Apple simply will be unable to be the industry-changing force it now is.

Tim Cook is seen by many observers as a competent numbers guy who understands manufacturing. But nobody thinks he is a creative type. For the moment, Apple designers likewise seem capable of executing on Apple products.

At some point, though, nobody at Apple seems to have that particular Steve Jobs capacity for figuring out what consumers want, before they know they want it. To be fair, there is not another executive in the technology business with that instinct.

Most companies take surveys to figure out what people want. Apple doesn't do that, or at least, has not. There might not be another human being capable of making large bets, to create whole new industries, the way Steve Jobs has done. Sooner or later, Apple will cease to be the force it has been. That's how important a human being Steve Jobs has been.

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