Mobile Data Offload Growing "Faster than Expected"

Mobile data offload to the fixed network is happening a bit faster than many had expected.

In 2012, Cisco estimates, mobile offload represented about 33 percent of total mobile traffic, on a global level.  As recently as 2011, Cisco estimated mobile offload would comprise 22 percent in 2016.

In 2013, offload will grow to 38 percent of total data consumption.

By 2016, Cisco estimates about 46 percent of global mobile data traffic will be offloaded  to fixed networks. That represents a “dramatic shift” of mobile traffic offloaded to fixed networks, Cisco says.

Some might speculate that offload could be a bigger factor. Offloading is even more pronounced in the United States,  where mobile offload will account for 66 percent of total mobile traffic in 2017.

Mobile data offload has grown faster than expected at least in part because Internet service providers intentionally are encouraging users to do so. Mobile service providers do so to maintain capacity on their networks, while fixed network providers do so to create “wireless extensions” of their fixed access services.

Consumers have a vested interest in using mobile offload to avoid stressing their data plans, especially as video has become the dominant driver of data consumption.

As smart phones increasingly are used for content consumption, not talking or texting, the value of mobile offload is bound to grow.

And that ultimately could create some new opportunities for untethered devices and services that replicate 80 percent or more of the value of a smart phone but without the need for traditional voice or texting plans.

And though people have been speculating for more than a decade about whether dense Wi-Fi networks could “compete” with mobile networks, the possibility of doing so actually is growing as the primary applications shift to content consumption, while voice and texting become available as over the top apps, and the density of Wi-Fi nodes increases.