New recession begins next year, Shilling says

“I’m predicting another recession next year,” says Gary Shilling, economist. It won't be a "double dip," a faltering of the current recovery, but a brand new recession. Many Americans won't find the quibbling reassuring. If this is a recovery, who needs it?

Shilling's forecast is based in part on current economic conditions, and partly on history. We’re already two years from the end of the last recession and three years from the business cycle’s previous peak, in December 2007.

Historically, economic expansions last about three years, especially in long down cycles of the kind he thinks we’ve been in since 2000.

So, he’s looking for a brand new cyclical recession beginning in 2012.

New recession begins next year, Shilling says Howard Gold's No-Nonsense Investing - MarketWatch