The decline, representing nearly six percent of total messaging revenue in 2010 and nine percent in 2011, is expected to continue. Optimists will argue that over the top social messaging represents an opportunity. Pessimists, or perhaps realists, will argue that there isn't all that much service providers can do except slow the rate of revenue descent.
That might seem defeatist, but there already are prior examples. Telcos were not able to arrest dramatically-falling long distance calling rates over the past few decades. Telcos have not been able to reverse the trend of declining local voice lines for about a decade.
Text messaging appears to be the next service to enter a "mature" phase, as well. The point is that a product late in its life cycle is not that big an opportunity, except for the last remaining consolidator of such services.
Much the same argument--that incumbents should embrace it fully-- has been made about VoIP services. But, with some exceptions, it has proven difficult for incumbents to embrace VoIP in ways that are revenue neutral.
For example, VoIP service provider revenues will reach $18.9 billion, in the U.S. market, by about 2015, according to the Telecommunications Industry Association.
That compares with circuit-switched voice revenue that, though declining at a 1.5 percent compound annual rate through 2015, still will represent, in 2015, a $127 billion revenue stream. VoIP will amount to about $19 billion in 2015.
In other words, as a revenue source, legacy voice is seven times bigger than VoIP.
That is not to deny the importance of VoIP in the consumer market. In 2012, VoIP access lines will be about 49 percent as large as circuit-switched lines, for example, suggesting that perhaps 58 million VoIP lines are in service, the data suggests.
But the notable point is that VoIP does not represent all that much revenue. In 2015, declining circuit-switched voice will still represent an order of magnitude more revenue than VoIP.
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