RIM, Nokia Show inflection Point in Device Market

A decade ago, it would have been hard to imaging Nokia being in the shape it now is, abandoning Symbian and losing market share. Five years ago, it would have been quite difficult to imaging the situation Research in Motion now is in, losing share rapidly. Both developments likely indicate that an inflection point of some sort has been reached in the handset market.

Perhaps one common thread here is that ability to offer a superior web and application experience drives growth. One issue for RIM is that BlackBerry was conceived as an integrated system for handling email communications. But lots of us would say BlackBerry's web browser experience has been poor. When a company optimizes its experience for an important application (secure mobile email) and a particular customer segment (enterprise), and those are key user drivers, a company wins.

But if end user requirements change, the optimization can become a drag. These days, one might argue, it is the web experience, or at least the application experience, which has become key. The change has been coming for a while, but most changes in technology-related businesses tend to take a while to transform a business. RIM's market share issues, along with Nokia's might signal the inflection point at which the new order rapidly becomes established.

If that is the case, then rapid market share declines and expansions always are possible. Nokia's position is different than RIM's, to the extent that Windows Phone 7, matched with Nokia's manufacturing prowess, could change Microsoft's share of the mobile operating system market in dramatic ways many might have thought unlikely.

But it is clear that the Symbian gambit has failed Nokia, and RIM might face a similar fate with its email-optimized platform.