Tech Bubble?

Some continue to insist there is no tech bubble. But some who used to think there was no bubble are starting to worry. Though most companies on public markets remain fairly valued, there is pent up demand for growth stories. Oddly enough, the sluggishness of the rest of the economy, and the lack of growth, is going to heighten interest in the coming wave of application-driven initial public offerings. See Let’s Not Get Too Cocky About The Blubble.

Still, it is worth noting that even bubbles are spurred by genuine change in the computing business. Bill Gates famuosly acknowledged that he "didn't get the Internet." Now former Google CEO Eric Schmidt candidly says he missed the social revolution, aside from writing memos that were not followed by vigorous action. See http://techcrunch.com/2011/06/01/eric-schmidt-is-a-surprisingly-worried-man/.

That's the sort of big miss by an industry leader that fuels a new wave of computing innovation, and typically is lead by new firms. But we tend to overshoot. Always. So expectations for most of the coming application IPOs will be excessive.