Sunday, September 4, 2016

Gigabit Internet Access Forecasts are Too Low, Ironically

Any linear forecast for gigabit Internet access connections is likely going to be wrong, since the biggest long-term change will be provision of gigabit service by mobile operators on a routine basis.

Deloitte Global predicts that the number of Gigabit per second (Gbps) Internet connections grew to 10 million in 2015, a tenfold increase, of which about 70 percent will be residential connections. All of that represents fixed network potential.

in 2015, the number of Gbps tariffs almost doubled in just three quarters, from just over 80 to over 150, and falling prices.

By 2016, 250 million customers will be able to buy gigabit service, all on fixed networks.

Some 600 million subscribers may be on networks that offer a gigabit tariff as of 2020, representing the majority of fixed network connected homes in the world.

At the moment,  between 50 and 100 million broadband connections may be Gbps, or can be purchased by customers, representing five percent to 10 percent of all broadband connections.

Of these about 90 percent are residential.

Those forecasts eventually will be eclipsed when 5G mobile networks become staples of the mobile business, as 5G--by definition--will support gigabit speeds.

In fact, we are likely to see a period where--at least on the metric of speed--fixed networks are nearly universally slower than mobile networks, something that has not happened, on a wide scale, ever before.

Global gigabit

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