The mobile operating system market is in a huge state of flux. As recently as August 2010, for example, Gartner was predicting that Symbian would the world’s top operating system in 2014, with Windows fifth, at about four percent share.In less than a year, based principally on Nokia’a abandonment of Symbian and promotion pof Windows, that OS is expected to climb to the number-two spot by 2015.
IDC expects Android, which passed Symbian as the leading operating system worldwide in the fourth quarter of 2010, to grow to more than 40 percent of the market in the second half of 2011.
But that won’t be the most-significant shift. Instead, some might argue, the prediction that Windows Phone will be in second place, with more than 20 percent share in 2015, might be as big a story as the virtual disappearance of Symbian, as Nokia moves forward using Windows Phone, and abandoning Symbian.
Nevertheless, assuming that Nokia's transition to Windows Phone goes smoothly, the OS is expected to defend a number 2 rank and more than 20% share in 2015.
Apple’s iOS was the number-three operating system OS at the beginning of 2011 and will retain that number-three ranking.
The BlackBerry operating system is expected to remain in the fourth spot. smartphone operating system over the forecast period. Like iOS, the BlackBerry OS will experience market share decline between 2011 and 2015.
http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS22871611
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