14% of wireless subs have 3G, and here comes 4G?

New fourth-generation wireless networks are the new thing in the infrastructure part of the mobile business, but TeleGeography notes that only 14 percent of the global wireless subscriber base is now connected to a 3G network, with the regional figure varying between 35 percent in Western Europe to just six percent in Africa.

You might wonder what that might mean for 4G penetration rates. Networks using 3G began to be deployed in 2001 and 2002, meaning nine to 10 years have passed. In general terms, that is about the time entirely-new generations of wireless technology tend to be deployed. New networks get deployed roughly once a decade.

Partly by design, partly by happenstance, each generation of networks has had slightly-different lead applications. The first generation was an analog, voice-only medium. Networks built on 2G added text messaging and later email. The 3G networks originally were thought to be a platform for broadband-related new applications, but wound up becoming a way to use the mobile Web and connect PCs to laptops and other mobile devices.

Aside from offering significantly-higher bandwidth, how 4G will develop remains a work in progress. Most now suspect it will be streaming video that winds up being the unique "killer" app for 4G.

But it is worth noting that after roughly a decade, about a third of all users in developed countries actually are on a 3G network, and most users still use a 2G network.

At 30 September 2010 there were 694 million 3G users scattered across the world, compared to a total of 5.12 billion wireless subscriptions.

One might therefore suspect that although the marketing hype will be about 4G, the revenue is going to be driven by 2G and 3G for quite some time.

14% of wireless subs connected to 3G networks: CommsUpdate : TeleGeography Research