Will 4G Boost ARPU?

There would be little reason for a mobile service provider to launch a fourth-generation network if it did not expect a financial return, in the form of enhanced revenue, lower operating costs, reduced churn, better customer acquisition or some other combination of value with a clear financial impact.

But researchers at Ovum suggest that the immediate returns will come more from operating cost advantages than revenue lift. In part, that will be because the overwhelming number of customers and accounts will remain on the 3G networks for some time. By definition, it will take some time before the number of 4G customers and revenue sources are big enough to affect revenue and earnings, one way or the other.

As Verizon, T-Mobile USA and AT&T activate their own 4G networks to compete with the existing Sprint Nextel and Clearwire networks, pricing should be under pressure as well.

One might also speculate that tablet and other connected devices, such as PC dongles and mobile hotspot devices, might initially provide the bulk of subscription revenues for all of the 4G services. The issue is whether those revenue sources will remain dominant as more 4G smartphones become available.

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