The point is that truly-significant innovations rarely are fully understood at first. There is a period of trial-and-error where people try to figure out what to do with the new tools. Then there is a period where people just swap the new tools for the old tools.
Finally there is a transformation when wholly-new systems are built around the new technologies. But that easily can take a decade or more, though we seem used to the idea that some technologies can propagate faster than that.
Some of you might remember that there was an explosion of business investment in information technology throughout the 1980s that seemed not to move the needle on productivity measures. The measurable gains didn't seem to appear widely until the 1990s.
Some argue it took that long for entire information-manipulating processes to be redesigned for digital appliances and networks before the gains could be reaped.
Quick response codes (QR codes), two-dimensional barcodes, provide a recent example. Basically, when a user takes a picture of such a code, a smartphone or other suitably-equipped device can translate the code into a web address, and take the user to that site.
Some see this as a way to make non-connected printed materials (magazine pages, posters, billboards, t-shirts, hats) "digital." But it will probably take some time before we all figure out what QR codes really are good for.
One example: when it comes to exchanging contact details, business cards are still the method of choice for most business people.
Some think barcoded objects will replace business cards. But one can think of all sorts of good reasons why human interactions in settings where business cards are used are not conducive to use of QR codes as a substitute.
Some think barcoded objects will replace business cards. But one can think of all sorts of good reasons why human interactions in settings where business cards are used are not conducive to use of QR codes as a substitute.
People trading cards don't know each other. They also are face to face in settings where holding up a camera and taking a picture is physically or socially undesirable.
Cocktail parties, inside meeting rooms, offices or exhibit stands are places where somebody might be asked for, contact information.
You might say the code could simply be printed on a hat, shirt or placard, but you quickly will understand that this is a non-viable channel. Few people probably want to broadcast contact details and fewer want to wear geeky clothing implying they are a "product" or "object," which is the inescapable notion.
One can make an argument that a QR code, printed on a card, will save a bit of keystroking when a recipient later can take a photo of the code, pull up a website and then cut and paste the information into a contact manager.
But if you have to carry and distribute the cards anyway, that isn't going to "replace" anything.
QR codes as a replacement for business cards might provide some value to some people. It hardly seems to provide obvious and immediate value for most people, though.
It does nicely illustrate the process of technology adoption, though. It is something people have to do, and not every conceivable application case will prove to be long lasting.
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