It is getting harder and harder, all the time, to describe what is happening in the mobile ecosystem, for the simple reason that the ecosystem now includes truly-significant revenue from application, device and service providers.
Mobile service providers generally earn about 60 percent of identifiable mobile ecosystem revenue, including network infrastructure; components; apps, content and advertising; devices as well as access.
Over the top app providers earn about 10 percent of ecosystem revenue while device suppliers earn about 22 percent of ecosystem revenue.
GSMA believes that mobile access provider revenue share will decline to perhaps 50 percent of ecosystem revenue by 2020, while device share remains about the same and app revenue might grow to 20 percent of total ecosystem revenues.
In other words, GSMA predicts that the biggest changes will have mobile operator share of ecosystem revenue share declining about 10 percent, while app providers gain about 10 percent share.
The caveat is that the percentages could change more drastically should one or more app providers also become key factors in the access business.