Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Can Any Competitors Catch the iPad?

US iPad Users and Penetration, 2010-2014
Apple's competitors in the tablet market have to be wondering whether Apple will do it again, namely create a brand new consumer device category it "owns." In truth, that has been the concern ever since the iPad was released. 


And there is reason to worry, one might argue.


Apple iPad penetration in the United States will nearly double from 2011 to 2013, from just over 12 percent of internet users to 22 percent. But other suppliers will whittle Apple's market share from 83 percent in 2011 to 68 percent at the end of 2014, eMarketer predicts, those market share figures might not provide much comfort. 


There will be 54.8 million tablet users in the United States by the end of 2012, eMarketer predicts By the end of 2014, that number will nearly double to 89.5 million. 

The adage that "there is no tablet market, only an iPad market" is no longer as true as it was a few years ago. But it still might be fair to say there is an iPad market, and then a tablet market. When one supplier has 70 percent market share, it is analogous to the MP3 player market, which wound up being an iPod market, with some other providers. 


In 2011, for example, Apple continued to hold 78 percent of the music player market. That is what "terrifies" other competitors. Apple has more than once showed an ability to dominate a new consumer electronics category. 


The mobile phone market is more complicated, as Apple does not compete in the feature phone category. In the smart phone category, Apple has about 30 percent share, globally. 


More tellingly, Apple seems to be, far and away, the most profitable smart phone manufacturer. Right now, one has to wonder whether Apple has done it again, creating a new category which it dominates. 







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