Will Microsoft Let Mobile Eat the Desktop?

One of the safest bets anybody in the technology business can make is that the leaders of the past wave of computing architecture will not be the leaders of the next wave.

And since there is relatively universal agreement that the next wave, whether you want to call it the "mobile computing" or "cloud computing" wave, is coming.

And though executives at each company will strongly contest the notion, that means slim odds Apple, Google, Microsoft or Cisco will be among the top-five biggest names in computing infrastructure as the next wave is established.

As shocking as that sounds, that is precisely what has happened in all of the earlier computing eras.

Some point to Microsoft as the company most endangered by mobility. In this view, the company has no answer for a market in which the operating system is free, and the dominant application isn’t Office, as that is where Microsoft makes most of its money.

The argument is that Apple and Google have managed to create a market where operating systems are subsidized by revenues from hardware, advertising or third-party applications, while social applications like Twitter, Facebook and blogs are the way users increasingly communicate ideas, rather than through Word documents or PowerPoint presentations.

Those are apt observations, but even those developments do not capture the full weight of the challenge. Any company that today is a top player in the computing ecosystem, history suggests, will fall in the next wave.

History will have to made if the pattern is not to repeat, and it isn't simply Microsoft that is at risk. Every leading company today has to worry.

Will Microsoft Let Mobile Eat the Desktop?